EU Milk Recovery Threatened
Milk production in the European Union imporoved in May, but recent weather could derail the region’s burgeoning recovery. While May was a better month for European milk production, compared to earlier months this year, weather continues to be a critical factor in the continent’s milk production, notes Betty Berning, analyst with the Daily Dairy report.
“Sweltering temperatures the first half of July in Germany and France appear to be causing a faster-than-average decline in milk production, there,” Berning notes. “And cold weather in the first part of the year in Western Europe pushed monthly production lower than comparable months in last year, and that has caused analysts to revise their full-year production estimates downward.”
Moreover, Berning notes, that last week’s devastating floods in Germany and surrounding countries could disrupt the dairy supply chain, and impact output on individual farms, but it is still too soon to know how serious any impact will be. Crop analysts have also voiced concerns regarding crop damage in affected areas.
Looking at May milk production, year-over-year output in the United Kingdom and EU-25 (Sweden has yet to report) jumped 1.47% to nearly 32.2 billion pounds, based on data and estimates published by Eurostat, CLAL, and the UK Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs. Year to date through May, EU-27 milk deliveries of 150.32 billion pounds were 0.26%, or 392 million pounds, higher than May 2020, adjusted for leap year, Berning notes.
Of the major milk-producing countries, Ireland, Italy, and the United Kingdom posted significant growth. Milk output in Ireland grew more than 6% to nearly 2.7 billion pounds, and year-to-date production through May was 8.7% above 2020. Italy produced nearly 2.6 billion pounds of milk, a 4% jump from last May, and the country’s January through May production outpaced the same period in 2020 by 3.3%. UK output of nearly 3.1 billion pounds of milk was 1.44% higher than in May 2020. The country has posted year-over-year milk production gains in every month through May, bringing total 2021 production to 14.35 billion pounds.
Milk production through the first five months of the year in Europe’s top two milk-producing countries, Germany and France, continues to trail 2020 volumes. Germany logged its first year-over-year gain of 2021 in May, with output up a slight 0.05%. Since January, Germany has produced 30.16 billion pounds of milk, or 343.8 million pounds less than the same period last year. While France increased output by a notable 2.7%, compared to May 2020, the country’s year-to-date production of 23.5 billion pounds was still down 1.23%, or about 290 million pounds, compared to the first five months of 2020.
Meanwhile, the United Kingdom has worked out a trade agreement in principle with Australia that will eliminate all tariffs on dairy imports into the Kingdom within five years and establish interim quotas. New Zealand and the United States will likely push for similar treatment in their ongoing trade negotiations with the United Kingdom, Berning says.
