Editor’s Note: This is one article in a series that is included in the 2024 Farm Journal’s State of the Dairy Industry report. The full 16-page report will appear in the May/June issues of Dairy Herd Management and Milk Business Quarterly and will be published in this space over the next several weeks. To download the full report for free click here.
Earlier this year, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service released the latest Census of Agriculture data. And without much surprise, the results showcased two main themes – more milk and more consolidation.
Over the span of a decade, the U.S. produced 25.3 billion lbs. more milk in 2023 than in 2013, all while keeping cow numbers relatively unchanged. However, where these animals lived and what size operations they resided on did see a significant change.
According to Lucas Fuess, senior dairy analyst at Rabobank, only 16 of the top 24 milk-producing states increased milk production within the last 10 years. States who experienced a decline included:
- California
- Florida
- Illinois
- New Mexico
- Pennsylvania
- Vermont
- Virginia
- Washington
In contrast, states such as Texas, Wisconsin and Idaho saw significant growth, with Michigan, New York and South Dakota trailing not far behind.
“By a wide margin, the largest growth occurred in Texas, producing an additional 7 billion lbs. of milk from 195,000 more cows versus 10 years ago,” Fuess says. “New processing capacity, mainly in the Panhandle region, in a state welcoming to the industry drove the strong growth in Texas.”
The size of the farm that the majority of today’s herd lives on also saw a significant change.
According to Fuess, dairy operations with less than 500 cows makeup 80% of the nation’s dairy farms. However, the majority of cows within the nation’s herd reside on farms with 1,000 animals or more. The Census of Agriculture provides the following breakdown:
Percent of U.S. dairy herd residing on farms with more than 1,000 cows.
- 1997 – 17%
- 2007 – 40%
- 2017 – 55%
- 2022 – 65%
“In the future, it is likely that more cows will move to larger farms, which are able to produce milk at a lower cost versus smaller operations. Growth in the number of larger herds will persist, but smaller farms will continue to exist in sizable numbers, especially those practicing diversified agriculture and those that have kept debt levels low,” Fuess says.
