The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has been contentious since it was first proposed. Before its passage opponents argued it would lead to jobs lost to Mexico, while its proponents argued it would open markets for exports.
Without evaluating NAFTA overall, for dairy it is an unambiguous gain. The two columns below show the last 20 years of exports of dairy products to Mexico and cheese exports to Mexico.
In both, it is obvious that Mexico is a much bigger customer today than before NAFTA. No doubt other factors, such as higher incomes and population growth, have contributed to this export growth, but a better trade climate is a key factor.
The downturn in 2009 was due to lower prices, not fewer exports. The charts for Canada
would look similar, but at a lower level. Of course, Canada has a much smaller population and a more protected dairy industry.
Year Thousand metric $ Value (millions,
Tons of cheese deflated to 2009)
1990 1.8269 $83
1991 3.2442 169
1992 5.9090 217
1993 7.2175 333
1994 9.9634 239
1995 4.6344 163
1996 4.7657 131
1997 5.5472 210
1998 6.1852 207
1999 5.0896 199
2000 9.9790 196
2001 16.2988 269
2002 14.8557 232
2003 16.1473 291
2004 21.3526 389
2005 17.5115 517
2006 24.4081 465
2007 33.5880 763
2008 36.9553 804
2009 40.1104 640
2009 40.1104 640
Source: USDA
