The May 2024 USDA Milk Production report illustrated a year-over-year decline of 0.2% in the 24 major States during April. March’s milk production revision now stands at 18.9 billion lbs., down 0.5% from March 2023.
When looking at per cow milk production, the 24 major states averaged 2,064 pounds for April, 8 pounds more than April 2023.
The number of milk cows on the farm in the 24 major States was 8.89 million head, 55,000 fewer head than a year prior and 6,000 head less than March 2024.
According to Phil Plourd, president of Ever.Ag Insights, the headline from this report was a little better than expected, but he highlights that we’re still in negative territory.
“That’s no surprise,” he says. “I’m more interested in what happens going forward. With prospective margins finally looking better for most producers, are we at a place where markets provide at least a little impetus for additional milk output? The answer to that question will be critical as we move into year end and 2025.”
Lucas Fuess, a senior dairy analyst for RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness, says we are now in a far different state as producers have kept fewer replacement heifers and the milking herd numbers are the lowest they’ve been in four-plus years.
“I think that there is very limited ability to increase cow numbers to kind of meet that,” he said to the attendees at the High Plains Dairy Conference in Amarillo, Texas. “Traditionally as profits go up, we would see cow numbers go up and we would see milk production respond to capitalize on that.”
At the end of the day, South Dakota was once again the shining star with year-over-year milk production gains of 12.3%. South Dakota’s dairy herd has added 118,000 cows over the past 12 years. The biggest decline in year-over-year milk production came from New Mexico, who dropped 17.3%.
