Feed Still Pricey but Evolving as Fall Nears

Corn and soybean values have tempered slightly since the near-historic highs of May and June this year, but dairy feed bills still will be hefty heading into fall, according to the experts at ever.ag.

In their weekly webcast, “The Grain Feed,” ever.ag offers market commentary from their commodity and risk management experts from across the country to help livestock and dairy producers manage their risk. The last two episodes in July proved the commodity markets remain volatile, thanks to weather sensitivities, logistical challenges, and global events.

Katie Burgess, Risk Management Director for ever.ag’s sister company, Blimling & Associates, predicted on July 21 that feed prices for dairy producers will be down about $2.00/cwt. of milk production by fall compared to the highs of spring. But unfortunately, she said milk is predicted to be down about $3.00/cwt.

December 2022 soybean meal futures contracts spiked more than 10% in the last week of July, from $380 to $420/ton. Analysts at ever.ag noted that local suppliers are starting to lower their basis on soybeans a bit, and also are finally starting to offer cash contracts for new crop 2022 corn and soybeans, another indication that this year's exceedingly tight commodity markets may be starting to loosen up.

“I think this may be a sign that rail transport is becoming more reliable and predictable again, or the basis is softening up at the origins, or both,” stated Jake Kingsley, Director of Feed Procurement at ever.ag. “I don’t think this market has broken yet, but there are signs that things are changing.”