Butter Soars, Cheese Sinks into Holiday Weekend

Dairy markets diverged ahead of the holiday weekend, with cheese prices falling sharply while butter surged to three-month highs on tighter cream supplies and strong exports.

Butter
Butter
(Pixabay)

Markets made two big moves heading into the holiday weekend. On the cheese front, spot blocks dropped to $1.8700 per pound. Class III futures moved lower in the aftermath. July traded as high as $20.14 before the spot auction but closed the day at $19.65 per hundredweight. Meanwhile, spot butter popped, breaking out of the sideways trading range that extends back to February. Futures followed suit, also reaching three-month highs on talk of tighter cream supplies and strong butter exports. Markets closed shortly before the Cold Storage report was released this afternoon, so we’ll need to wait until Tuesday morning to see how spot markets respond to the latest inventory numbers.

Today’s Highlights from Ever.Ag’s Know Your Markets

  • Spot blocks ended the week with a tumble, shedding $0.0775 to close at $1.8700 per pound. Barrels slipped to $1.8525 per pound, $0.0175 lower. Three lots of blocks and two of barrels traded. The CME butter market broke out of its recent range, jumping $0.0575 to $2.4200 per pound. That was the highest price since February. Fifteen lots changed hands. Spot NDM also returned to February pricing levels, up $0.0225 to $1.2525 per pound, with seven loads exchanged.
  • The June Class III contract fell along with spot blocks and landed at $19.34 per hundredweight, 49 cents lower. Class IV found new strength, with June futures up 30 cents to $18.00 per hundredweight and Q3 gaining 33 cents to reach $19.17. Q3 butter contracts advanced to $2.6260 per pound, gaining $0.0535.
  • USDA’s April Cold Storage report leaned bullish for butter, with stocks down year-over-year for the first time since February 2024. Inventories totaled 337 million pounds, at the lower end of expectations and down 6.8% on the year. While stocks rose 14 million pounds on the month, that was well behind the five-year-average increase of 25 million pounds. The cheese picture was more neutral, with stocks at 1.408 billion pounds, close to expectations.

Ever.Ag - The risk of loss trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Investors should carefully consider the inherent risks in light of their financial condition. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources to be reliable, however, no independent verification has been made. The information contained herein is strictly the opinion of its author and not necessarily of Ever.Ag and is intended to be a solicitation. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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