Spot cheese feels like it has bottomed out, with futures continuing to hold a considerable premium. The last two NDPSR reports have shown extremely high premiums compared to spot. Nonfat futures have started to show a bit of life, getting bid off this week’s GDT event. Reports of slower seasonal powder production are emerging, likely offering support. Spot butter has failed to find any meaningful bids heading into the late summer months, leaving futures with the only option to sell off the premium they have been trading out on the curve.
Today’s Highlights from Ever.Ag’s Know Your Markets
- Spot blocks regained a little lost ground, rising to $1.6400 per pound, a 1.5-cent gain. A healthy 11 loads changed hands. Spot NDM also ticked up, adding a penny to close at $1.2900 per pound, the highest price since February. Twelve lots traded. Barrels, butter and dry whey were unchanged.
- After shooting higher last week, spot milk prices slipped as temperatures moderated in the Midwest. USDA pegged spot milk in the region at a midpoint of $0.50 per hundredweight under class compared to +$1.00 last week, +$0.25 last year and -$2.70 on the five-year average. Cream is tightening seasonally, with USDA reporting Class II multiples in the Central region at 128. That compares to 125 last week, 133 last year and 134 on the five-year average.
- Consumer spending was stronger than expected in June, with retail sales totaling $720.1 billion, up 0.6% month-over-month and +3.9% on the year. That compares to an inflation rate of +0.3% and +2.7%. Grocery sales rose 0.5% on the month and +2.7% versus 2024, ahead of the Food-at-Home inflation rate of +0.2% and +2.4%. Restaurant spending climbed 0.6% and +6.6%, both also ahead of the June inflation rate of +0.4% on the month and +3.8% year-over-year.
Ever.Ag - The risk of loss trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Investors should carefully consider the inherent risks in light of their financial condition. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources to be reliable, however, no independent verification has been made. The information contained herein is strictly the opinion of its author and not necessarily of Ever.Ag and is intended to be a solicitation. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
