The spot trade finally seemed to follow what futures had been telling us all last week: cheese found a bottom and rallied. Entering into the abbreviated trading week, spot block prices experienced the largest one-day price increase since July 2023. To a lesser degree, Class III futures also rallied, but there is still a material carry in the forward markets with August and September currently averaging about $18.95 per hundredweight. While the forward curve remains high compared to US spot pricing, it continues to trade a discount relative to European markets. EU cheese commodity prices have been coming down, but the euro versus US dollar has continued to appreciate. Euro/USD moved to the highest rate since winter 2021, trading around $1.1825. Q3 mozzarella prices are near $2.15 per pound, according to Trigona.
Today’s Highlights from Ever.Ag’s Know Your Markets
- Last week’s price drops triggered interest in CME cheese. Spot blocks shot up a dime to $1.7200 per pound and barrels climbed to $1.6950 per pound, three cents higher. Twelve loads of blocks and six of barrels traded. Spot butter jumped $0.0375 to reach $2.6000 per pound for the first time since January. Three lots changed hands.
- USDA’s Acreage report painted a neutral picture for both corn and soybeans. With 95.20 million acres of corn and 83.38 million acres of soybeans planted, both were down just slightly from March’s estimates. The Quarterly Stocksreport was also neither bullish nor bearish. USDA pegged US corn stocks at 4.644 billion bushels, down 7.1% on the year, in line with expectations. Soybean inventories totaled 1.01 billion bushels, up 3.9% versus 2024 and slightly above analyst predictions. The reports didn’t move the needle much for futures prices, with contracts logging only small losses or gains through the end of the year.
- According to USDA, as of June 29, 73% of the US corn crop was in good or excellent condition, up from 70% last week and expectations for 68-71%. USDA pegged the soybean crop at 66% good or excellent, unchanged on the week and within the predicted range of 65-69%.
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