Cheese Slips, Milk Output Dips, Culling Climbs in Midwest

Midwest heat pressures milk output and boosts culling, while block cheese prices dip and test familiar support levels.

milk cow
milk cow
(Taylor Leach)

Blocks cheese slipped while trading 21 loads as Class III futures found a little bit of support. The block price is flirting again with the long-term $1.60 support level we’ve seen multiple times this year. At that price point, exports seem to get booked and prices rally. With recent Midwest heat and not-so-great domestic demand, it’s not likely we’ll see major price changes in the near future.

Today’s Highlights from Ever.Ag’s Know Your Markets

  • After relatively light volume the first part of the week, CME cheese trading picked up, with 21 loads of blocks and six of barrels changing hands. The spot block price slipped to $1.6850 per pound, a penny lower, while barrels declined $0.0175 to $1.7100. Spot butter rebounded a bit after yesterday’s decline, jumping to $2.5900 per pound, gaining $0.0275. Six lots traded. Spot dry whey dropped again, down $0.0275 to $0.5625 per pound, with six lots exchanged.
  • High temperatures led to a drop off in milk output in the Midwest. USDA reported spot milk prices at a midpoint of $1.00 per hundredweight over class, up from -$4.50 last week, +$0.50 last year and the five-year average of -$3.85. Cream multiples climbed, but remain well below average prices. USDA pegged Class II multiples in the Central region at 125 compared to 118 last week and 133 last year and on the five-year average.
  • For the week ending June 28, US slaughter rates remained below prior-year levels, down 3.0% versus 2024. The West (-26.2%) saw the biggest decline, with the Mid-Atlantic region (-8.5%) also logging a decrease. But the Northwest (+12.7%), South (+26.9%) and Midwest (+9.8%) all saw culling rates jump higher on the year.

Ever.Ag - The risk of loss trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Investors should carefully consider the inherent risks in light of their financial condition. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources to be reliable, however, no independent verification has been made. The information contained herein is strictly the opinion of its author and not necessarily of Ever.Ag and is intended to be a solicitation. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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