They say “April showers bring May flowers” – and after a downpour of selling pressure in April left Class III futures posting their lowest settlement of 2025, May has certainly brought a bloom of strength. Since tagging a bottom in the opening days of May, front-month Class III has rallied more than $1.50 over the past five trading sessions, fueled in large part by robust export demand as US product remains at a significant discount to global benchmarks. Meanwhile, spot cheese is still trading well below nearby futures, creating a classic basis‐play: buy physical and sell the front month. For that carry trade to unwind, spot will need to continue firming toward futures levels. With technical momentum on its side, all eyes are on whether Class III can sustain this pop or if resistance farther along the curve will cap gains.
Today’s Highlights from Ever.Ag’s Know Your Markets
- Spot blocks crossed the $1.80 mark, climbing 3.5 cents to $1.8200 per pound, with seven loads exchanged. Barrels rose to $1.8000, adding $0.0075, with five lots changing hands. Spot dry whey jumped to $0.5500 per pound, gaining 2.5 cents in the biggest single-day increase since December. One lot traded. Spot butter slipped to $2.3225 per pound, losing $0.0175, with three loads exchanged.
- The price action in CME cheese and dry whey carried over to Class III futures. The June contract leapt to $19.02 per hundredweight, a 42-cent gain, while Q3 settled at $19.22, up 39 cents. June “all cheese” also advanced, tacking on 3.5 cents to reach $1.9490 per pound. Class IV also found support, adding 19 cents and closing at $18.74 per hundredweight.
- So far this week, the CME cheese average sits at $1.81 per pound, still far below $2.50 in New Zealand and $2.40 in the EU. It’s a similar story in butter, with the US average at $2.33 per pound compared to New Zealand’s $3.54 and Europe’s $3.67. The gap is smaller in milk powders. The US NDM average is $1.20 per pound, while New Zealand rose to $1.28 and Europe is unchanged on the week at $1.22.
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