After a few days of choppy trading, Class III futures came under renewed selling pressure today, with contracts through December 2025 all finishing in the red. The bulk of September–December volume reflected roughly 600 short positions rolled from May into those months, suggesting a rebalance of managed money. At the same time, the spot cheese average tumbled by $0.0775, triggering further selling in the front-month contracts. If that downward momentum in spot persists, the low-$1.60s should continue to provide solid support. Dry whey has remained buoyant since President Trump’s comments on reduced tariff pressure from China, while the Class IV complex was relatively quiet today.
Today’s Highlights from Ever.Ag’s Know Your Markets
- CME cheese markets took a tumble today. Blocks dropped to $1.7000 per pound, shedding six cents, while barrels fell to $1.6900 per pound, a 9.5-cent loss and the biggest decline in six months. Five loads of blocks and one of barrels changed hands. Spot dry whey gained another penny, closing at $0.5100 per pound, with no trades. Spot NDM saw heavy trading, with 10 lots exchanged. The price ticked up a half cent to $1.1875 per pound.
- Spring flush is taking hold, with flows increasing as bottling demand begins to weaken. USDA reported spot milk prices in the Midwest at a midpoint of $4.00 per hundredweight under class. That compares to -$3.50 last week, -$3.00 last year and -$4.20 on the five-year average. Meanwhile, Class II multiples in the Central region jumped to 120 versus 112 last week and 117 on the five-year average. USDA reports a little tightening in the market.
- There weren’t any surprises in USDA’s Cold Storage report, which was neutral for cheese and butter. US cheese stocks remained below prior-year levels in March. Total cheese inventories reached 1.392 billion pounds, up 1.2% (+15.9 million pounds) on the month, but down 4.2% (-62.3 million pounds) year-over-year. Butter stocks are still strong, totaling 323.7 million pounds. That was up 5.9% (+18.1 million pounds) month-over-month and +4.0% (+12.6 million pounds) versus 2024.
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