After a strong week in the Class III complex, we took a breather, with the futures curve moving into the red. Fueled by a global cheese price rally and healthy cash and carry in our own cheese curve, we saw strong buying all week in the spot market. However, we have once again bumped up to the $1.90+ futures price that has historically offered resistance. Markets will need to see strong hands buying spot in order to believe we can take the next leg up.
Today’s Highlights from Ever.Ag’s Know Your Markets
The CME barrel market ran into resistance at the $1.80 mark, slipping back to $1.7825 per pound, $0.0175 lower. But spot blocks continued to climb, up two cents to $1.8400 per pound. Thirteen lots of blocks and four of barrels changed hands. Spot butter was unchanged on the day. Dry whey slipped to $0.5425 per pound, losing $0.0075, while NDM dipped a quarter cent to $1.2150.
Milk flows are still strong, but demand is slipping a bit as summer break for schools gets closer. USDA reported spot milk prices in the Upper Midwest at a midpoint of $4.25 per hundredweight under class, up from -$5.00 last week, but down from -$0.50 in 2024 and -$3.45 on the five-year average. Cream also ticked higher this week, with the Central region Class II multiple at 120. That compares to 115 last week, 122 last year and 125 on the five-year average.
Culling rates remain well below prior-year levels. For the week ending April 26, slaughter was down 11.6% year-over-year. The West and South regions logged the biggest drops, down 24.8% and -18.7%, respectively.
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