Class III Slips as Cheese Drops; Milk Output Up 1.6%

Class III futures ended lower as cheese prices declined, despite a boost from dry whey. May milk production rose 1.6% year-over-year and the U.S. herd reached its largest size since 2021.

 Milk futures markets were stronger in both Class III and IV today.
Milk futures markets were stronger in both Class III and IV today.
( Wyatt Bechtel)

Class III futures started the day in the red. When spot dry whey traded a few cents higher, Class III got a bit of a boost. However, a steady string of offers in blocks pushed the market back lower on the day. A total of 36 loads of blocks traded for the holiday-shortened week. The Class III equivalent at today’s cheese and whey levels now sits at $16.36 per hundredweight. All eyes were on today’s May Milk Production report, which met expectations for another month of gains.

Today’s Highlights from Ever.Ag’s Know Your Markets

CME dairy markets ended the week with another drop, led by further declines in cheese and butter. Spot butter saw the heaviest trading, with 19 loads exchanged as the price shed 2.75 cents to close at $2.5000 per pound. Block cheese dropped 2.5 cents to $1.6650, with seven lots traded. Barrels slipped 3.25 cents to $1.6575 on four loads. NDM also moved lower, down two cents to $1.2600, with one lot exchanged. Dry whey logged the lone increase, climbing 2.25 cents to $0.5700 per pound. Two lots traded.

US milk production climbed 1.6% year-over-year in May, in line with expectations. But California output slipped 1.8% on the year, below expectation. After an upward revision to April cow numbers, the dairy herd increased 20,000 head on a report-to-report basis. The dairy herd is at its largest size since 2021.

Spot milk availability in the Midwest is variable as higher temperatures start to impact cow comfort in some areas. USDA reported the spot milk price at a midpoint of $4.00 per hundredweight under class, unchanged on the week and down from -$1.50 in 2024 and -$3.15 on the five-year average. Class II multiples in the Central region were also unchanged on the week at 123. That compares to 135 last year and 133 on the five-year average.

Ever.Ag - The risk of loss trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Investors should carefully consider the inherent risks in light of their financial condition. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources to be reliable, however, no independent verification has been made. The information contained herein is strictly the opinion of its author and not necessarily of Ever.Ag and is intended to be a solicitation. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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