People can’t get enough cheese, regardless of what continent they live on. Cheese has long been a staple in many countries’ cuisine, and in those cultures where cheese has more recently been introduced, demand continues to rise. “Global cheese demand just keeps climbing,” said Sarina Sharp, analyst with the Daily Dairy Report.
According to USDA’s semi-annual Dairy: World Markets and Trade report, global cheese consumption is projected to reach a new record high of 21.6 million metric tons, or 47.7 billion pounds, this year. Compared to 2023, global cheese consumption is up 1.2% and compared to 2019, it’s up 5.7%.
“Global cheese production is rising even faster than demand, and the United States is the major contributor to the surplus,” Sharp noted. USDA expects that U.S. cheese production will be 9.8% greater in 2024 than it was in 2019, outpacing growth in domestic consumption, which is likely to rise 8.3%. During the same period, foreign cheese output is projected to grow 4.2%, which will not keep pace with the expected 4.6% increase in foreign cheese consumption.”
Sharp’s math makes it clear that the U.S. cheese industry will continue to depend on exports, but she quickly adds that the news on going forward is positive. USDA expects that each of the world’s major cheese importers will import at least as much cheese this year as they did in 2023.
“However, slower economic growth and waning populations have softened demand in key Asian markets. Although Japan and South Korea are likely to import more cheese this year than they did in 2023, their imports are expected to still fall short of 2020, 2021, and 2022 volumes,” Sharp said. “Somewhat softer demand from these markets will likely be offset by record-setting imports from Mexico and China and record-tying purchases from Russia, the world’s second-largest market for imported cheese.”
USDA expects U.S. cheese exports to climb 7.6% this year to a record high. In late 2023, U.S. cheese prices declined even as values climbed in Europe and Oceania. That price gap will likely provide U.S. exporters with some new business in the first half of 2024.
“To keep product moving, though, prices will have to stay low enough to retain buyers’ attention,” Sharp said. “Strong exports this year could help lift the U.S. cheese market from its recent depression, but with cheese output heavy on both sides of the Atlantic, the ceiling on the cheese market will likely need to be quite low.”
