China
The December Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows the farm economy will likely stay strained into 2026. As crops face tight margins, biofuels policy — especially E15 and biomass-based diesel — could influence recovery.
Beijing’s new duties on EU dairy, a response to EV tariffs, create turbulent waters for European exporters while opening potential, albeit limited, market opportunities for U.S. dairy amid a broader push for global diversification.
The future of the dairy industry is rife with opportunity. Gregg Doud with NMPF highlighted the industry’s strides forward, its present challenges and the promising path ahead.
A tight dry whey market and robust demand are both working to raise CME spot whey prices.
The White House says China will buy 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans in late 2025 and 25 MMT annually through 2028, plus resume U.S. sorghum and hardwood log imports, clearing confusion over comments from Secretary Bessent.
Details are minimal so it’s not clear how there will be enough staff to provide the Milk Production, Crop Production, Cattle on Feed and WASDE reports with many still furloughed.
China on track to buy record volumes of cheese and butter in 2025
The potential for a Chinese/U.S. trade deal centered around agriculture is plastered all over the headlines this week as we approach the highly anticipated meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi later this week. What could this mean for dairy trade, and more importantly, the producer’s bottom line?
Arlan Suderman says the U.S. is strengthening ties with Argentina to counter China’s growing influence — a global strategy that’s leaving many U.S. farmers and ranchers feeling sidelined.
From volatile milk prices to the rise of beef-on-dairy, and from export dependence to uncertainty with China, producers and analysts agree: resilience and adaptation are more critical than ever.
National Milk Producers Federation President Gregg Doud discusses record U.S. dairy processing investments, surging global protein demand, policy hurdles like labor and immigration reform, and what’s ahead for dairy trade with China.
Through production is increasing, milk prices might be softening.
Surging cheese and butterfat exports are a bright spot for U.S. dairy farmers, but ongoing trade negotiations may stand in the way of even greater gains.
In what it calls a comprehensive action plan for agriculture security, USDA unveiled seven critical areas the Trump administration will address, and securing and protecting U.S. farmland from being owned by China topped that list.
China is one of the biggest importers of American breeding pigs and other livestock genetic material such as cattle semen. These lucrative niche export markets had been growing, but have dried up since the start of the U.S.-China trade war.
Class III milk futures surged early this month, driven by rising cheese prices and a shift in market sentiment that replaced discounts with a seasonal premium.
Damage from U.S.-China trade war extends far beyond sales.
Recent policy shifts have clouded the outlook for the months ahead, introducing demand uncertainty at a time when milk production and components are increasing.
Tariffs have been dominating the news, and the uncertainty of the impact of those tariffs on dairy export demand. The strong exports of butterfat and the difference between the world price and the U.S. price may minimize the impact for that category.
China’s rapid growth in milk production appears to be over for now.
Rising tariffs between the U.S. and China are putting pressure on key dairy exports like whey and lactose, sparking concern over the potential of lost sales and falling prices.
After China retaliated with its own tariffs, the U.S. said on Tuesday that 104% duties on imports from China would take effect shortly after midnight, even as the Trump administration moved to quickly start talks with other trading partners targeted by Trump’s sweeping tariff plan.
The majority of respondents in the March Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor agree the U.S. is currently in a trade war, but who wins? Ag economists say it’s not the U.S., Canada or Mexico but rather Brazil that could come out on top.
While Canada and Mexico have taken measures to address U.S. concerns, China’s response remains muted, potentially setting the stage for further trade tensions.
These customized levies, expected to be finalized by April, are designed to rebalance trade relationships and target unfair practices, including subsidies, regulations, and exchange rate manipulation.
The measures, effective March 12, eliminate country-specific exemptions and extend to downstream steel and aluminum products, affecting key suppliers such as Canada, Mexico, Brazil, and South Korea.
U.S. farmers and various trade groups are very apprehensive about not only the potential negative impacts of tariffs on the U.S. ag sector, but what they do to garner new trade agreements.