Gregg Doud, president and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation, sat down with us during World Dairy Expo to talk about what’s driving momentum in dairy, the challenges ahead, and why he believes U.S. producers are well-positioned globally.
Q: When you look at the dairy sector today, what are the biggest opportunities and challenges?
A: I see three big things. First is investment. We’re looking at nearly $10 billion in new U.S. dairy processing capacity from 2023 through 2026. There’s nothing like it in the history of U.S. agriculture—of any commodity. That reflects the reality that the U.S. is where dairy has room to grow.
Second, it’s all about protein demand. Globally, the appetite for protein—beef, pork, poultry, and dairy—is remarkable. Just look at the resurgence of cottage cheese. It’s everywhere right now. Domestically and internationally, demand is rolling. This year, U.S. dairy exports are up 2% in volume and 16% in value.
Third, we’re seeing strong efficiencies on the farm—better genetics, better feed, longer-living cows. U.S. milk production is up around 3%. The limiting factor, though, is the rise of beef-on-dairy, which is both a revenue stream for producers and a governor on overproduction.
Q: With tariffs still in place in some markets, is export demand holding?
A: The only country retaliating against us right now is China. Everywhere else is normal. And even with China, that’s more about geopolitics than dairy. The weaker dollar this year has also been a big help to U.S. ag exports overall.
Q: Where are you seeing the most expansion in production?
A: Texas, South Dakota, Kansas—the middle of the country is leading the way. But New York is also interesting. They’re building processing capacity that outpaces their current cow numbers, which means longer-term we’ll see expansion there, too.
Q: Let’s turn to policy. We hear the term “dairy cliff” every time the farm bill deadline looms. Is that a real concern?
A: Honestly, no. The so-called dairy cliff—milk at $70 per hundredweight—isn’t realistic. Congress has always extended farm bill authority when needed, and I expect they will again. The bigger challenge is the broader dysfunction in Washington—we can’t seem to get 60 votes in the Senate. That stalls everything.
Q: How would a government shutdown affect dairy?
A: My biggest concern was USDA’s role in price discovery. Fortunately, USDA confirmed they’ll continue collecting the data needed to set milk prices, even in a shutdown. So that’s a relief.
Q: Labor remains a major challenge. Any progress on a fix?
A: Yes, conversations are happening. Short-term, the administration is looking at adjustments to the H-2A program. But dairy needs year-round labor, so that doesn’t really help us. Long-term, Congress must act. Chairman G.T. Thompson is working on it, but immigration reform always runs into the 60-vote problem in the Senate. Still, I’m hopeful. Former Ag Secretary Mike Johanns recently told me the political stars are aligning like they did in the late ’80s when big reforms last happened. That gives me optimism.
Q: You’ve been at the table in trade negotiations. Can the U.S. still strike a new deal with China?
A: I think every effort will be made. But let’s be clear: a deal isn’t real until U.S. Trade Representative says it’s real. They’re working hard right now—not just with China but also Vietnam, Indonesia, and others. The challenge is that China today isn’t the China of 2019. Brazil has surged in soy and corn production, becoming a formidable competitor. Meanwhile, China’s own economy has slowed, which is softening demand, including for dairy.
Q: Longer term, what are NMPF’s policy priorities?
A: At the top of the list is “Whole Milk for Healthy Kids.” We’re down to one senator away from making it a reality in schools. That’s huge. We’re also watching the new dietary guidelines, which I think will be favorable to dairy. Combine that with the processing investments underway, and I believe the future looks very bright.
Q: Final thoughts?
A: We’re hitting on all cylinders—processing investment, protein demand, exports, beef-on-dairy. Yes, we’ve got challenges with labor and policy gridlock, but the momentum for U.S. dairy is undeniable.
