After a volatile week in which markets reacted to tariff news, today saw decreased volume and volatility. Synthetic spot Class II is building a healthy discount to futures. Class III futures settled slightly in the green. Class IV milk futures continued to see a slight sell off, but the complex was mixed — with butter continuing its downward trend and NDM attempting to bounce a little higher after several weeks of declines. With tariff news seemingly indicating a delay in implementation, futures see no reason to move lower at the moment.
Today’s Highlights from Ever.Ag’s Know Your Markets
- Strong cheese trade data didn’t translate to higher prices in Chicago. Spot blocks gave up yesterday’s gains – and then some – shedding four cents and closing at $1.8600 per pound. Eight lots changed hands. Barrels sat unchanged at $1.8050 with no trades. Butter also dropped, down two cents to $2.4100 per pound, with two lots exchanged.
- US cheese exports surged ahead in December, totaling 96.7 million pounds. That was up 11.0% (+9.6 million pounds) on the month and +21.2% (+16.9 million pounds) compared to 2023. For the full year, outbound volume reached 1.125 billion pounds, up 17.8% (+170.2 million pounds) on the year and an all-time high. But uncompetitive pricing and slack global demand continued to cut into NDM+SMP export sales. Outbound volume reached 109.3 million pounds in December, down 8.4% (-10.0 million pounds) month-over-month and -23.2% (-33.0 million pounds) on the year. January through December, exports totaled 1.643 billion pounds, down 7.9% (-140.2 million pounds) versus 2023.
- In December, combined NDM+SMP production totaled 179.8 million pounds, up 9.6% (+15.7 million pounds) on the month, but down 14.8% (-31.3 million pounds) versus 2023. Total cheese output reached 1.2 billion pounds, up 4.0% (+46.1 million pounds) versus November, but down 0.7% (-7.9 million pounds) on the year.
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