In its October World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the USDA lowered its milk production forecast for 2024 based on a slight decrease in growth for milk production per cow – dropping 100 million lbs. to 225.8 billion lbs. compared to last month’s report. The same forecast held true for 2025, with milk production reduced slightly from 227.9 billion lbs. to 227.7 billion lbs.
Throughout the rest of 2024, dairy imports are expected to rise mainly due to increased cheese and butter imports. The trend continues into 2025 with similar expectations. While skim-solids imports remain steady for 2024, they are anticipated to grow in 2025 due to more cheese and other dairy products being brought in.
On the export side, 2024 fat-based exports are stable, but 2025 could see a rise in butter exports. Skim-solids exports for 2024 are up, thanks to more nonfat dry milk (NDM) shipments, but a competitive market might affect 2025’s performance.
Lower butter and cheese prices have led to reduced price forecasts for 2024 and 2025. On the other hand, NDM and whey prices are expected to rise due to strong demand. For Class III milk, the forecasts have been lowered for both years because the drop in cheese prices outweighs the increase in whey prices. Class IV prices are also down due to lower butter prices, despite higher NDM prices. The all-milk price is forecasted at $22.80 per cwt for 2024 and $22.75 per cwt for 2025.
