After the three-day weekend, spot cheese prices reacted with a series of offers that pushed the entire Class III forward curve downward. With new production coming online and uncertainties surrounding exports, Class III prices could face significant pressure. Keep an eye on potential tariff actions by President Trump, as possible changes could impact cheese shipments to Mexico, which is a big player for the United States.
Today’s Highlights from Ever.Ag’s Know Your Markets
- Spot blocks started the holiday-shortened trading week with a plunge, falling 11 cents to $1.7800 per pound. That was the biggest single-day drop since January 2023. Barrels also tumbled, dropping to $1.8500 per pound, four cents lower. One lot each of blocks and barrels changed hands. Class III contracts followed suit. February futures fell limit down (-75 cents) to $19.43 per hundredweight. A milk powder price jump at the GDT didn’t give the CME NDM market a bump. Spot prices slipped to $1.3475, shedding 2.5 cents, with three lots exchanged.
- According to government data, China dairy imports shot higher in December, perhaps re-building inventory or frontloading ahead of potential tariffs. Inbound WMP volume was up 56.0% on the month and +110.9% year-over-year, while SMP leapt 88.6% versus November and +42.1% on the year.
- Today’s GlobalDairyTrade event saw most prices climb higher, with WMP leading the way, up 4.8% to $1.81 per pound. SMP also advanced, up 1.8% to $1.24 per pound. Cheddar and butter each rose 2.5%, settling at $2.20 and $3.17 per pound, respectively. The only declines were mozzarella (down 0.3% to $1.89) and AMF (down 7.7% to $3.00 per pound).
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