Ramped up conversations around possible 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada plus 10% tariffs on Chinese goods sent the cheese market sharply lower last night and weakness continued through today’s session. Buyers appeared content to stay out of the kitchen, unwilling to step in and catch the falling knife. Both block and barrel cheddar prices retreated more than a nickel on the day, dropping back into the low-to-mid $1.80-per-pound territory. Class III futures slumped as well, with the March contract swinging wildly throughout the day before landing 70 cents lower. No dairy contract was spared from today’s weaker action, with both butter and powders also trading lower.
Today’s Highlights from Ever.Ag’s Know Your Markets
- The CME butter market continued its decline, ending the session at $2.4500 per pound. While that was down just a penny, it brought prices to the lowest level since June 2023. Two lots changed hands. Spot dry whey gave up more ground, slipping to $0.6600 per pound, a three-cent loss, with one load exchanged. It was a relatively quiet day in CME cheese, with blocks adding a half cent to reach $1.9350 per pound, while barrels remained at $1.8650. Five lots of blocks and four loads of barrels traded.
- Dairy cow slaughter rates are well above prior-year levels. For the week ending January 18, culling totaled 58,000 head, up 13.5% on the year. Rates were highest in the Northwest (+29.5%) and Midwest (+25.7%) and lowest in the West (+1.5%), where HPAI remains an issue.
- US corn export sales were strong, with 2024-25 crop sales within the predicted range at 1.359 million metric tons, while new-crop sales surpassed expectations at 45,800 metric tons. Old-crop soybean sales were below expectations, with 438,002 metric tons sold. New-crop sales were higher than expected, with 4,520 metric tons sold.
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