Whey Takes a Hit as Tariff Tensions with China Escalate

Tariff tensions with China sent ripples through the whey market, dragging down spot and futures prices and putting pressure on Class III milk contracts.

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Whey was the talk of the market today. Amidst all the tariff turmoil, one fact certainty seems to have emerged – trade with China could be greatly impaired. And China buys a lot of our dry whey and whey protein concentration (WPC). In 2024, they purchased the equivalent of 18% of the US dry whey production and 28% of WPC. Whey spot and futures prices slumped in response to the upswing in China tariffs. May whey futures dropped to $0.4378, down nearly two cents on the day. Class III futures pushed lower on the move, too, as every penny change in whey equals six cents in Class III.

Today’s Highlights from Ever.Ag’s Know Your Markets

  • CME cheese markets continued to climb. Barrels jumped 2.5 cents to reach $1.8050 per pound, the highest price since February. Blocks rose to $1.7450, up a half cent. Four lots of blocks and three of barrels changed hands. Spot butter also continued to regain lost ground, up 1.5 cents to $2.3475 per pound, with three loads exchanged. Concerns about China exports are weighing on spot dry whey, which dropped two cents to $0.4650 per pound, with seven lots trading.
  • Class III futures fell, thanks in part to the decrease in whey prices. The June contract tumbled 36 cents to $16.93 per hundredweight, and Q3 futures settled at $17.94, 25 cents lower. Grains are still following an upward trajectory as the US dollar weakened today, offering improved purchasing power to international buyers. May corn closed at $4.9025 per bushel, adding $0.0725, and May soybeans advanced to $10.4275, tacking on $0.1375.
  • The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary reading for April fell to 50.8, the lowest since June 2022 and the second-lowest reading on record. Respondents reported feeling more pessimistic about the job market, the stock market and inflation. The results were tabulated from March 25-April 8, prior to the most recent tariff announcements.

Ever.Ag - The risk of loss trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Investors should carefully consider the inherent risks in light of their financial condition. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources to be reliable, however, no independent verification has been made. The information contained herein is strictly the opinion of its author and not necessarily of Ever.Ag and is intended to be a solicitation. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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