The dairy industry, like many industries, is caught in the crosshairs of President Donald Trump’s tariff policy, and the uncertainty of today’s trade policies, has caused at least one foreign dairy company to shift sales to other markets. In an April earnings report, Ornua, the manufacturer of Kerrygold butter, said it had already sold most of its stockpiles slated for export to the United States in an effort to frontload sales ahead of potential tariffs.
“Americans can’t get enough Irish butter, but they may soon have to make do with less,” said Sarina Sharp, analyst with the Daily Dairy Report. “Last year, Kerrygold reached a record number of U.S. households, and for several years, Kerrygold has ranked second in U.S. butter sales, behind domestic favorite Land O’Lakes.”
In November 2024, the United States imported a record-shattering 17 million pounds of butter from Ireland, primarily the Kerrygold brand. While U.S. imports of butter from Ireland remained well above average monthly volumes through January 2025, they plunged to less than 3 million pounds in April and less than 2 million pounds in May—the smallest monthly volume since 2019. “And there is reason to believe that imports will remain low,” said Sharp.
In late July, Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the loose terms of a trade framework between the world’s two largest economies in which the European Union agreed to import U.S. goods tariff-free, while the United States said it would levy 15% tariffs on all imports from the bloc. However, each EU member state still needs to ratify the agreement for it to become effective. Last year, the EU-27 sent 141 million pounds of butter to the United States. If 15% tariffs are levied, the price consumers will have to pay for Kerrygold and other EU butters will almost certainly rise.
Ornua Chief Executive Officer Conor Galvin told a recent panel in Dublin that while the United States remains a key market, “the rules of the game have changed,” and the company will need to diversify sales away from the United States.
“A setback or even a pause in the growth of Irish butter imports would present a rare opportunity for U.S. buttermakers who have tried but failed to capture some of Kerrygold’s market share,” Sharp said. “American consumers have been willing to pay more for Kerrygold because it boasts as much butterfat as other European-style butters, while not skipping the salt. And while U.S. buttermakers can mimic Kerrygold’s fat and salt content, they have been unable to replicate its Emerald Isle aura, with Gaelic prominently featured on its distinctive gold packaging.”
If Kerrygold plays less prominently in dairy cases, some consumers could turn to one of the U.S. brands that have long struggled to compete with the iconic Irish import, Sharp said. And the vast spread between U.S. and EU butter prices could convince these converts to stick with American products when and if Irish butter imports rebound, she added.
“Lower imports and greater demand for domestic butter brands are already helping to lap up some of the United States’ rapidly growing butterfat supplies,” Sharp noted. “Currently, domestic demand is just strong enough to stay ahead of butter production, but any shift in the trade balance could quickly disrupt this equilibrium.”
