April milk production numbers are in and have increased 2.8 percent from April 2025. Milk production totaled 19.2 billion pounds for April and after March revisions, March was up 71 million pounds or 0.4 percent from last month’s estimates. Production did decrease slightly from last month, however still well above last year.
The number of cows has also increased above even the highest quarter of 2025 coming in at 9,618,000 head. That is trending 120,000 above last year’s average. Milk production per cow is 6,093 pounds for first quarter, close to last year’s average. The combination of the two data points leads to milk production totaling 58,598 million pounds for the first quarter of 2026. That is 3 percent higher than first quarter of 2025.
With all of the extra milk production we have seen in recent years, the question is, where does all the milk go? Demand has steadily increased with the higher availability of milk supply. On a milk-fat basis, exports in the first 3 months of 2026 totaled 5,001 million pounds, about 40.6 percent higher than last year. On a skim-solids basis, exports totaled 12,190 million pounds, about 5.7 percent higher than the same period for 2025.
International demand is strong, especially for cheese and butterfat productions. Due to the quantity of supply the U.S. has available, our pricing is competitive, our production is rampant so exports are expected to continue to increase as we move further into 2026.
Domestic use for all dairy products was also higher in the first quarter of 2026. On a milkfat basis, domestic use was 52,719 million pounds, up 0.9 percent higher than the same period a year ago. On a skim-solids basis, domestic use was 47,108 million pounts, up 3.3 percent from 2025. Dry skim milk products and whey protein concentrates have had the largest year over year increases, up 22 percent for dry skim production and 74 percent higher for whey protein concentrates, on par for the increasing demand for protein products. Domestic usage for butter and cheese have also increased from 2025 however domestic uses for dry why and lactose have declined this year.
Overall, with the export program thriving, and domestic usage increasing for most products, the 2026 March ending stocks declined 5.9 percent on a milkfat basis and 5.7 percent on a skim-solid basis. Butter, American cheese, dry skim milk and whey protein concentrate stocks all declined year over year despite the rising increases in production.
Forecasts for 2026 all seem to be positive for U.S. Dairy products. The USDA believes exports will continue to increase due to high global demand. We could also see more demand from China as trade talks have been positive and China has committed to buying more U.S. Agricultural products over the next few years. Details on how much dairy that will include are still unknown.
Overall, the U.S. dairy market has a lot to look forward to. While naysayers are focused on the overwhelming supply, the story has turned favorable for demand and it is not slowing down anytime soon.
Sarah Jungman is a commodity broker with AgMarket.Net and AgDairy, the dairy division of John Stewart & Associates Inc. (JSA). JSA is a full-service commodity brokerage firm based out of St. Joseph, MO. Sarah’s office is located in Winterset, Iowa and she may be reached at 515-272-5799 or through the website www.agmarket.net.
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