The USDA Milk Production report for April showed a 0.3% increase over a year prior, which marks the lowest year-over-year-increase since June 2022. Phil Plourd, head of market intelligence at Ever.Ag Insights, says that on-farm margins have deteriorated to a degree that, historically, corresponds with less milk production or at least slower growth.
“While we’ve seen this coming for a while, the really discouraging milk checks are just starting to circulate,” he states. “We’re fond of saying that ‘It always takes longer than you think!’ to turn milk production lower (or higher). Even though we repeatedly remind our clients and ourselves of this reality, the slow process still often seems surprising. For all that, our models expect milk production to turn mildly negative this summer.”
Cow Numbers Share Mixed News
At 9.43 million head, cow numbers increased by 26,000 head more than last April, but 16,000 fewer head than in March 2023. California production was down 69 million lbs., a reflection of -1.9%, reflecting the impact of the spring flooding the Golden State was faced with.
Ryan Junio owns two dairies located in Pixley, Calif., home to 4,200 cows and had to evacuate one dairy that sits south of the Tule River in mid-March.
“It was simply a mess,” Junio shares. “I think all of us out west collectively prayed at the same time for water and it bit us in the rear.”
Currently, the top six production states are:
| State | Pounds | Change in Pounds | Change % | Change in Cows |
| CA | 3.545 billion | -69 million lbs. | -1.9% | 0 |
| WI | 2.644 billion | 3 million lbs. | 0.1% | -5,000 |
| ID | 1.415 billion | 37 million lbs. | 2.7% | 16,000 |
| TX | 1.413 billion | 18 million lbs. | 1.3% | 5,000 |
| NY | 1.336 billion | 31 million lbs. | 2.4% | 10,000 |
| MI | 1.003 billion | 25 million lbs. | 2.6% | 8,000 |
South Dakota continues to illustrate growth with an increase of 13,000 cows and 26 million lbs. of milk, a growth of 7.7%, year-over-year. Although, Evan Grong, sales manager for Valley Queen anticipates growth in the I-29 corridor to be much slower in 2023 and 2024, as they have no immediate plans for additional capacity.
“However, due to our expansion project, Valley Queen expects approximately 25,000 additional cows will be added in 2025 and 2026,” Grong shares.
Kansas also documented growth with an increase of 9,000 cows and 17 million lbs. of milk, also reflecting an increase of 7.7% change year-over-year. In other news, New Mexico was down 10,000 cows and 19 million lbs., a reflection of -3.1%.
