A 20-year-old book may shed some prophetic light on the future of American agriculture.
Inevitable Surprises is a non-fiction work by author and futurist Peter Schwartz. Published in 2003, the book’s premise was to evaluate the trends of the day and make predictions of the economic, social, and cultural changes that would ensue in the decades ahead.
While not all of Schwartz’ predictions for the ensuing decades were correct, some were highly accurate, including:
- The emergence of China as a global industrial leader, spawning an Asian power structure in the global theater.
- A technology-fueled productivity boom in the United States.
- The significant economic development of India.
- The evolution of rapidly spreading and hard-to-control diseases.
- Mass migration of people into the United States and Europe.
Schwartz emphasized that at any given time, there are certain trends in plain sight that might largely be ignored. Then, we end up being surprised by the changes they inevitably create.
In a recent edition of Agricultural Economics Insights, contributor Randy Dickhut parlayed Schwartz’ wisdom into the examination of current trends related to agriculture. Among today’s circumstances that could become tomorrow’s revolutions, Dickhut pointed out:
- 40% of the farmland in the U.S. will change ownership over the next 20 years – the continuation of a trend that has been going on for decades.
- In that same timeframe, the Baby Boom generation of farmers – a large percentage of the current U.S. farm population – will be retiring and looking for a succession plan.
- Advancements in equipment, technology, crop sciences, and production practices will create many new ways to farm.
- The “financialization” of agriculture could change the model of who farms; who owns the farmland, animals, and facilities; and how the farming is done.
- Electric cars could diminish demand for ethanol.
- Cellular proteins and bio-fermentation may reach a competitive scale, changing the demand for commodities and livestock grown on traditional farms.
- Climate change – always on the table – could affect agriculture in dramatic ways.
Dickhut will explore these topics in greater depth in an upcoming Agricultural Economics Insights series.
