Global cheese demand is on the rise. In fact, global cheese consumption is projected to reach a new record high of 21.6 million metric tons, or 47.7 billion pounds, by the end of this year. And according to a recent Rabobank report, China may be a growth engine for continued global cheese trade.
Currently, China’s annual per capita cheese consumption sits at 0.2 kg., or less than half a pound. However, this number is projected to show gradual growth in the coming years with the Chinese cheese market seeing a healthy pipeline of investment activity.
“Low per capita consumption, expansion of quick-service restaurants, bakeries, and tea shops, and product innovation provide a platform for a gradual increase in Chinese cheese demand,” says Michelle Huang, Dairy Analyst for Rabobank.
In its report, Rabobank anticipates cheese demand to grow at a 9.1% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2023 to 2030, with total cheese demand reaching 495,000 metric tons in 2030. According to Huang, drivers of this growth include a rise in disposable income among middle-class consumers, the growing appetite for Western-style quick-service-restaurant chains, and novel uses of cream cheese and mozzarella, which led to the rising popularity of cheese in the food service channel.
From 2012 to 2022, the report notes that food service cheese sales accounted for 60% to 75% of total cheese consumption, with 2022 sales reaching 154,000 metric tons.
“We estimate cheese sales growth in the food service channel to average 10.3% annually between 2023 and 2030, with demand reaching 375,000 metric tons by 2030,” Huang says.
Additionally, domestic cheese production is likely to account for 35% to 45% of total cheese consumption, leaving a 55% to 65% share from imports.
“We estimate China’s annual cheese imports will reach 270,000 to 320,000 metric tons in 2030. Although trade opportunities remain favorable, the potential for increased domestic cheese production could impact our import growth forecast,” Huang adds.
Despite cheese consumption being on the rise, China’s domestic supply will not likely be able to satisfy its needs, presenting global cheese traders with the opportunity to capture some of this rising demand. The forecasted growth, however, is also dependent on China’s weakening economy.
“Weaker economic conditions pose downside risks to demand growth,” Huang notes. “Although cheese consumption has a long runway for growth, it will be sensitive to prices and consumer purchasing power.”
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