Farm Economy
The latest USDA American Farms and Ranches at a Glance report offers insights to how row crop growers are making a go of it financially in 2025.
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), commits to fast-tracking Trump’s legislative agenda by May, which is perhaps the biggest bill in American history. There will be unprecedented spending cuts to help pay for it all, along with newly proposed tariffs on imported goods.
The first trading day of 2025 saw the U.S. dollar hit a two-year high, but the strength of the dollar in 2024 also had a major impact on commodity markets.
From trade and deregulation to alternative land uses and cash rent prices, ag economists have no shortage of issues on their radar for 2025.
The CR includes nearly $110 billion in disaster and farmer aid, which includes $10 billion in farmer aid and $21 billion ag disaster aid. $2 billion of that disaster aid is specifically for livestock producers. The measure also includes a one-year extension of the 2018 Farm Bill.
Data from Iowa State and Peoples Company shows farmland values have softened this year, but by how much (and why) might surprise you.
The stopgap deal to avoid a government shutdown includes $10 billion in direct payments for farmers, $21 bllion in ag disaster aid, a one-year extension of the 2018 farm bill and year-round E15.
A one-year extension of the 2018 farm bill, tied to the continuing resolution, has sparked intense negotiations over economic assistance to farmers.
The eroding health of the overall farm economy was the emphasis of the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, which is a survey of nearly 70 leading agricultural economists from across the country.
Agricultural groups said over the weekend they do not support year-end spending package sans economic aid for ag producers.
As federal policy decisions tend to heavily impact rural industries, the outcome of the 2024 election promises to significantly shape the rural economy in the year ahead. CoBank’s annual report outlines what to expect.
In the third quarter, farm income and loan repayment rates weakened.
Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) wins Majority Leader race. Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) was eliminated on the first ballot. And Thune beat Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.) 29-24 on the second ballot.
Trump garnered even stronger support in rural America versus his still robust rural vote in this first administration. That is likely a backlash against the ag policy moves of the Biden/Harris administration that focused on underserved and minority rural citizens.
Yes, the Fed is cutting interest rates but the agency can only influence mid- and long-term rates. Concerns about inflation are pushing those rates back up again.
Which Presidential Candidate Is More Likely to Tame Inflation or Support Farm Policies and Biofuels?
Ahead of the election, the October Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor asked economists which presidential candidate will be better for agriculture on taming inflation, providing more certainty on farm policy, as well as more likely to support biofuels policies.
The October Monthly Monitor reflects cautious optimism in certain areas of agriculture, marked by export strengths and potential price recoveries, but shadowed by long-term rebuilding challenges, weather dependencies and the impact of the upcoming election.
As agriculture faces multiple challenges, USDA’s latest net farm income forecast is masking the reality for farmers. While livestock margins have improved for 2024, high input costs and below breakeven prices for row crops means margins could be the worst in nearly 20 years.
Based on a farmer poll and the Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, farmers and economists differ on whether Harris or Trump would be better for agriculture, particularly when it comes to trade.
The effects are already visible, with declining French barley exports to China and the U.S. struggling to sell corn for the new season.
Rising inventories and declining auction values strain dealers, farmers, and manufacturers, leading to layoffs and financial pressures across the industry.
Agriculture can sometimes act as a buffer during broader economic recessions, as demand for essential food items tends to remain relatively stable. However, when multiple indicators align in the industry, it can signal a recession.
USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) will provide an updated 2024 net farm income forecast on Thursday. Economists say the net farm income picture would look even worse it weren’t for improved livestock prices.
Testimony at House Ag hearing Tuesday captured the downturn and anxiety in the ag sector.
Headwinds in interest rates, inflation and commodity prices seem to have little impact on land values, though single-digit decreases in Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan and Ohio have been reported.
The Federal Reserve has four more chances this calendar year to cut interest rates. Since July 2023, the system has kept its benchmark interest rate steady at a 23-year high of 5.25% to 5.5%.
Ag economists’ views on the ag economy took a dive in the first Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor of 2024; however, relatively strong balance sheets and working capital could provide a cushion for 2024.
The national average for a gallon of gas is now $3.07, the lowest since 2021.
Findings from CoBank’s new quarterly report provides updates on the U.S. economy and agricultural markets.
The question before the dairy industry and USDA’s Dairy Industry Advisory Committee is where we go from here.