Markets - General
CME cheese prices began the week in the red with barrels slipping to $1.8450 per pound
USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report leaned bearish for both corn and soybeans, with yield, production and ending stock estimates ahead of pre-report expectations.
Inflation in September was higher than expected, up 0.3% from August and +2.4% versus September 2023, compared to calls for +0.2% month-over-month and +2.3% year-over-year.
Calm in the spot markets translated to a lack of fireworks in futures.
August was yet another strong month for cheese exports with 94 million pounds shipped out, explaining part of why spot cheese prices went on a run higher in September.
Class III contracts for the rest of 2024 fell, with November settling at $21.00 per hundredweight, down 39 cents, and December closing at $20.44 per hundredweight, 42 cents lower.
After making small movements over the last two days, the CME barrel market resumed its downward trajectory and closed at $2.1200 per pound, $0.0325 lower.
Spot butter prices tumbled, giving up seven cents to reach $2.6800 per pound, the lowest level since January.
Class III futures through the rest of 2024 continued to decline, with the November contract down 27 cents to $22.61 per hundredweight.
Barrels continued to decline, landing at $2.1475 per pound and giving up 15 cents, the largest single-day drop since November 2020.
Butter and cheese prices have fallen substantially since the highs were established. The supply outlook has changed with reports indicating there should be sufficient supply through the end of the year.
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CME barrels continued to plunge, falling to $2.2975 per pound, shedding $0.1025 on the day and -$0.2925 from the Friday before.
Butter settled at $2.7900 per pound, giving up seven cents to reach the lowest price since March.
Futures followed spot prices lower today, with Q4 Class III prices settling at $22.45 per hundredweight, 45 cents lower.
Friday’s Milk Production report, which showed there was more milk in August than expected, had a bearish effect on spot blocks and butter.
Spot butter dropped below the $3-per-pound mark for the first time since May.
Barrels continued to rise, reaching $2.6225 per pound and tacking on 5.75 cents to set yet another record-high price.
Supply concerns and rising global prices continued to drive CME barrels higher.
Seasonal demand is providing support to the market. This support may continue for a time as supply has tightened and demand is improving.
Harvest is underway across much of the Midwest, with 9% of the U.S. corn crop now in the bin, ahead of the five-year average of 6%.
The CME barrels market didn’t show signs of slowing its ascent, adding a nickel to reach $2.4850 per pound. That’s the highest price since November 2020.
EU cheese prices remain the most expensive in the global market place at $2.42 per pound,
CME cheese jumped to prices not seen since May 2022.
CME cheese led the charge today, with blocks jumping to $2.2700 per pound, adding on four cents to reach a price not seen since June 2022.
Midwest spot prices are $1.75 above class, up from +$1.25 last week and well ahead of the five-year average of -$0.25 at this time
The past few weeks have shown us that the markets are becoming increasingly volatile. The months of September and October will see that volatility continue. Seasonal buying has increased fueled by the potential for tighter inventory.
Class III futures followed CME cheese prices higher. Q4 contracts prices lifted to $22.16 per hundredweight, up 28 cents.
CME cheese took a tumble today, with barrels dropping to $2.1250 per pound
Butter continued its post-Cold Storage climb, adding $0.0225 to reach a new year-to-date high of $3.1975 per pound.
After ending last week with a tumble, CME cheese markets began this week with a surge, thanks in large part to USDA’s bullish Cold Storage report.