Class III Futures Still Climb Amid Ample Milk and Global Price Gap

Class III futures climbed over $1 this week, even as spot cheese slipped, with low prices helping to boost demand.

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Milk_Canva
(Canva)

The spot cheese average moved lower today but is still higher on the week. May Class III closed the week up more than $1 after just four trading days. Although there are reports of milk and cheese being readily available across the country, it seems low prices have cured low prices for now. US prices remain below New Zealand and the EU. But is this a large enough move to keep the US competitive in the world market?

Today’s Highlights from Ever.Ag’s Know Your Markets

  • CME cheese markets moved closer to convergence. Spot blocks ticked up a penny to $1.8350 per pound, while barrels dropped 3.5 cents to $1.8400. Volume traded: three lots of blocks and seven of barrels. Butter gained just a quarter cent, settling at $2.3425 per pound, but a healthy 11 loads changed hands. After spending the rest of the week unchanged, spot NDM rose a half cent to $1.1725 per pound, with three lots exchanged.
  • Milk flows in the Midwest are increasing as Spring progresses, though availability varies by region. USDA reported spot milk prices at a midpoint of $3.50 per hundredweight under class, down from -$3.00 last week and -$2.25 in 2024, but up from -$4.40 on the five-year average. Cream also remains plentiful, with USDA pegging Class II multiples in the Central region at 112 compared to 113 last week, 124 last year and the five-year average of 120.
  • Slaughter rates continue to decline. For the week ending April 5, culling decreased by 14.1% year-over-year. The biggest drop was in the West (-27.0%), followed by the South (-15.0%).

All markets will be closed Friday in observance of the Good Friday holiday.

Ever.Ag - The risk of loss trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Investors should carefully consider the inherent risks in light of their financial condition. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources to be reliable, however, no independent verification has been made. The information contained herein is strictly the opinion of its author and not necessarily of Ever.Ag and is intended to be a solicitation. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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