Dairy - General
Class III milk futures continued their strong momentum today, with blocks and barrels both posting gains with no offers appearing during the cheese session.
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It’s pretty safe to say that the Class III market direction remains unclear.
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The market appears to be grappling with uncertainty around Class III prices, particularly as we approach a critical day tomorrow with the release of the Milk Production and Cold Storage reports.
After the three-day weekend, spot cheese prices reacted with a series of offers that pushed the entire Class III forward curve downward.
Volatility in futures is one thing but volatility in the spot market is another. The volatility in the futures market is difficult to predict, but volatility in the spot market makes it impossible to predict.
And then there was quiet. After a week of see-saw action in the spot cheese market, Friday’s CME cheddar prices finished unchanged
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The volatile trading week for cheese continued today, with both blocks and barrels jumping higher. Class III prices responded positively by climbing through the first five months of the year.
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Class III markets took a breather after yesterday’s extreme lower move to check in with spot markets.
Dairy producers are starting the year off with margin pressure following the latest round of USDA reports.
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Holstein springers again topped out at $4,250/head in Pipestone, Minn. in January, 2025, with other reporting markets also hanging in strong.
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Class III futures rose on the heels of CME cheese, with February and March contracts settling at $20.60 and $20.27 per hundredweight, up 33 and 31 cents, respectively.
It was a rough day for dairy producer margins, as milk prices came under pressure while grain prices rallied.
Milk production forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been reduced due to lower cow inventories and slower output growth per cow, according to the latest WASDE report.
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