Milk Production Forecast Lowered by USDA

The milk production forecasts for 2017 and 2018 are reduced from the previous month as slow growth in milk per cow more than offsets increases in dairy cow numbers.

For 2017, fat basis exports are raised from the previous month on higher butter and anhydrous milk fat shipments. Fat basis imports are unchanged. The skim-solid basis export forecast for 2017 is lowered on weaker than expected whey sales.

The import forecast is unchanged. For 2018, fat basis exports are raised on stronger shipments of a number of dairy products. Fat basis imports are lowered slightly. Skim-solid basis exports are raised on expected stronger sales of nonfat dry milk (NDM) and other dairy products while imports are unchanged from last month.

Butter and cheese price forecasts are raised for 2017 and 2018 as demand strength is expected to carry into 2018. The 2017 and 2018 NDM and whey price forecasts are reduced from the previous month on weak demand.

The 2017 Class III price forecast is unchanged at the midpoint, but the 2018 price is lowered as lower whey prices more than offset higher cheese prices. Class IV price forecasts for 2017 and 2018 are raised as stronger forecast butter prices more than offset lower NDM prices.

The all milk price is raised to $17.80 to $18.00 per cwt for 2017, but is unchanged at $18.00 to $19.00 per cwt for 2018.