WASDE: Total Meat Production Lowered; Milk Unchanged

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  The 2014 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month as higher beef production is more than offset by lower pork, broiler, and turkey production, USDA said today in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estiamtes (WASDE).  

For beef, continued relatively large cattle placements in the first quarter are expected to result in higher slaughter in 2014. Coupled with heavier carcass weights and higher expected first-quarter cow slaughter, the beef production forecast is raised. Pork production is reduced from last month as higher carcass weights are insufficient to offset tighter supplies of hogs. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on March 28. Broiler production is lowered as hatchery data points to slower growth in eggs set and chicks placed.  Turkey production is reduced as January slaughter and hatchery data were below expectations.  Egg production forecasts for 2014 are unchanged, but historical data are adjusted to reflect recently published data.

The beef import forecast for 2014 is unchanged from last month, but the export forecast is raised on strong sales to Asian markets. Pork imports are raised as prices are forecast higher, but the export forecast is reduced as high prices are expected to constrain sales. The broiler export forecast is raised as January exports were higher-than-expected.  Turkey exports are lowered.  The egg export forecast is unchanged.

Cattle prices for 2014 are raised from last month, reflecting tight supplies and continued price strength for fed cattle.  The hog price forecast is raised on expected tight supplies of market hogs and strong demand.  Broiler and turkey prices are largely unchanged but the egg price is raised on higher first-quarter prices.

The milk production forecast for 2014 is unchanged from last month, but historical data are adjusted to reflect revised data for 2012 and 2013.  Fat-basis exports for 2014 are raised on higher sales of cheese and butter.  Skim-solid exports are unchanged as lower lactose and weaker-than-expected early year sales of nonfat dry milk (NDM) offset gains in cheese.  Fat-basis imports are unchanged.  Skim-solid imports are raised on strong demand for milk protein concentrates. 

Product price forecasts for cheese, butter, NDM, and whey are higher, supported by strong demand and price strength to date.  Class III and Class IV prices are raised on higher product prices.  The all milk price is forecast at $21.40 to $22.00 per cwt.