Blame drought for reduced herds;Lack of rain forced ranchers to cull cattle;
SAN ANTONIO - The searing drought has forced members of the largest livestock association in Texas to reduce their herds by almost 40 percent, but it has not shaken their confidence in the future of the industry.
Those are among the findings of a first-ever survey on the drought's impact by the Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association.The results, compiled from 874 members in Texas, showed that 84 percent of the ranchers had culled cattle because of the drought, with the average herd size falling by 38 percent.
Liquidating herds
In addition, about 8 percent of the respondents said they expect to liquidate their entire herd by next year. None of the respondents said they planned to leave the cattle business for good, however.
Dennis Hale, Wilson County's agrilife extension agent, said the association's culling estimate understates how far down cattle numbers are in the area because they were calculated on a herd count that already was reduced by a drought in 2009.
If culling rates from both droughts were calculated, herds would be 50-60 percent smaller, and some are "down by 75 percent," said Hale.
Agriculture hit hard
"Rain will come, and when it does, you can bet ranchers will rebuild their herds, and the industry will come back stronger than ever," said Joe Parker Jr., a Wichita Falls-area rancher who is president of the Cattle Raisers Association. "It's sure not down and out."
The survey, sent to the association's Texas membership at the end of August, helps clarify how deeply the ongoing drought has affected agriculture in the nation's second-largest agricultural state. Texas had more than $21 billion in agricultural production in the most recent agricultural census in 2007, second to California.
That census said Texas produced more cattle and calves - 13.7 million - than any state.
Higher prices
The reduction in the size of Texas' cattle herds may be less than the 38 percent indicated by the association's survey since some livestock moved from one owner or pasture in the state to another. But the reduction is likely to drive up beef prices with demand for beef products strong both domestically and internationally, officials said.
Bloomberg News on Tuesday quoted Rich Nelson, director of research for Allendale Inc. as saying cattle futures could reach an all-time high of $1.36 a pound in as few as seven months after gaining 16 percent in the past year. Allendale is an agri-economic research and brokerage firm.
"Fewer cows, fewer calves. (That means) higher prices over time," said David Anderson, a livestock economist with the Texas AgriLife Extension Service.Anderson already was projecting that beefcows in Texas would decline by 12 percent this year, which would result in the largest-ever annual decline in that count.
Ranchers trimming their herds start with older cows and now often are selling calves lighter than normal. The drought has kept pastures from greening up and forced ranchers to spend more on hay and other costly supplements for longer than normal. Water also has become scarce on many ranches.
Benno Luensmann, co-owner of the Seguin Cattle Co. auction barn, said his auction and others in the area have been selling large numbers of cattle for months. Spotty rains that fell on the area since late last week won't slow that process much, he said.
"It didn't rain any grass or hay," said Luensmann.
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DROUGHT IMPACT
The Texas and Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association's drought impact survey showed:
FEWER CATTLE: 84 percent of respondents reduced their herd size.
SMALLER HERDS: Average herd was reduced by 38 percent.
FEWER HEIFERS: Breeding heifers were cut by 34 percent.
SELLING OUT: 8 percent expect to sell out of cattle this year.
NEXT YEAR: 11 percent expect to grow herd size in 2012.
NO QUITTERS: None expects to leave industry.
Source: Texas and Southwester Cattle Raisers Association
