Markets - General
It’s not very often that whey takes the lead story, but it’s had main character energy this week.
CME cheddar markets continued yesterday’s climb. Blocks advanced to $1.7000 per pound, adding three cents, while barrels rose to $1.6675, $0.0175 higher.
Today’s spot market showed mostly positive activity, with cheese prices making notable gains.
CME cheese markets continued to lose ground, with both blocks and barrels reaching the lowest levels since April.
Output remains variable across Europe’s largest milk-producing regions. Germany’s production dipped 1.8% year-over-year in September, while output in the Netherlands dropped 2.6%. Production in France, on the other hand, rose 3.2% on the year.
After being on the decline, CME cheese prices ended the week on a rise.
USDA reported more milk is coming online ahead of new plant openings, leaving some milk without a home in some regions and leading to a wide price spread of -$3.00 to +$3.00.
The food index increased 0.2% month-over-month with grocery store prices ticking up 0.1% and food away from home prices gaining 0.2%.
USDA AMS announced its Final Decision on changes to the Federal Milk Marketing Orders, making only minor adjustments from the Recommended Decision in July.
Butter sales jumped 23% year-over-year.
High cheese prices and declining feed costs have finally dealt dairies a winning hand.
Butter production in September totaled 159.2 million pounds, up 11.3%
November futures settled at $20.25 per hundredweight, up 13 cents, while Q1 prices came in at $19.68 per hundredweight, 10 cents higher.
Nearby Class III contracts fell along with spot cheese, with November futures dropping to $20.12 per hundredweight, down 15 cents, and December declining to $19.46, 21 cents lower.
Like spot cheese prices, Class III futures were mixed.
Class III futures were mixed, with the November contract up nine cents to $20.22 per hundredweight and December down 16 cents to $19.94.
Warm, dry weather allowed farmers to advance corn harvest, with 81% of the crop now out of the field, a jump from 65% harvested last week.
Class III futures moved lower along with CME cheese.
Are the highs already in when it comes to milk prices this year, and could the heifer shortage hep propel prices in the coming year? Those are two questions we asked during the live taping of U.S. Farm Report during World Dairy Expo this year.
Class III futures followed barrels downward, with the nearby contract setting at $22.72 per hundredweight.
After plunging yesterday, Class III futures reversed course.
Milk production in the 24 major dairy-producing states saw a slight rise in September, totaling 17.5 billion lbs.
Spot prices dipped today following yesterday’s bearish Milk Production report.
In its September Milk Production report, USDA pegged U.S. milk output at 18.2 billion pounds, up 0.1% year-over-year and ahead of expectations.
Weekly volume trade amassed to 161 loads - the highest ever since CME started the five-day trading week.
In September, consumer spending outpaced expectations, totaling $714.4 billion.
Class III followed cheese prices higher, with the nearby contract settling at $22.55 per hundredweight.
Though spot butter prices held steady, the market was busy with trades, with 46 lots changing hands.
As agriculture faces multiple challenges, USDA’s latest net farm income forecast is masking the reality for farmers. While livestock margins have improved for 2024, high input costs and below breakeven prices for row crops means margins could be the worst in nearly 20 years.
There had been earlier concerns that milk supply would tighten with supply limited to bottling and manufacturing. Lower cow numbers and tight heifer supplies would further reduce milk availability. Much of that concern has dissipated.