Markets
Spot cheese prices started the week off with an increase. Crop conditions are holding relatively steady through the dog days of summer.
U.S. exports of nonfat dry milk have been falling since 2020.
Grain futures continue to drop with nearby contracts breaking through key levels.
Milk prices have been better than expected and could remain that way for a while. Lower American cheese production and strong exports should provide further support.
While the entire ag sector grapples with various challenges, declining grain prices are delivering a much-needed break for dairy producers.
Challenges remain, though, for producers who want to expand.
The global feed-grade amino acid market is expected to grow steadily in coming years. But this popular class of feed additives also is becoming more expensive to access.
Dairy cattle slaughter in May totaled 216,100 head, down 22,100 head from April and 33,000 lower than May 2023.
July Class III futures rose today to $19.87 per hundredweight, gaining 12 cents.
U.S. milk production dropped 0.9% year-over-year in May.
Processors directing much of the whey stream to WPC and WPI.
Both international demand for cheese and butter improved in April, moving exports significantly above a year ago. However, there may be no further DMC payments for the rest of the year. Here’s why.
It was another day of green in the cheese market. CME spot prices pushed higher, with block values reaching the highest level since August 2023.
Class III milk finished the day mostly unchanged with June down a penny at $19.77 and July up 7 cents to $20.60.
After years of negative margins, it might just be profitable to raise and sell excess dairy replacement heifers again.
Today’s stout April cheese export data offered a good reminder that competitive U.S. prices can help move the needle on exports.
Class III and Class IV milk prices take a major hit on the chin.
Today’s GDT event was supportive, with increases in powders and cheese fueling further gains in Class III and IV futures.
Limited U.S. milk production likely will offset weakening exports.
Friday brought on late buying as the milk markets finished the week with a swing back higher.
Milk production in April was stronger than expected and may indicate output could exceed a year ago if the current pattern remains. Heightened volatility will persist as traders grapple with reality and perception.
Returning from the extended holiday weekend, dairy markets opened the week on a bearish note.
Class III futures have made an impressive increase over the past month with the June contract increasing by over $4.00 per cwt. The last time we saw this movement in an actively traded contract was in the spring of 2020.
Elimination of some Green Deal requirements for farmers could reduce declines in EU milk production going forward
Rabobank believes slow but steady dairy commodity price gains will materialize in the second half of this year.
Cow numbers are lower than a year ago, but fewer cows are being culled than anticipated. The lower availability of replacements and strong interest in beef-on-dairy may influence the level of culling.
Milk markets put in one of its quieter days over the past month on Monday.
International demand needs to pick up before U.S. milk prices can increase significantly.
It seems as if the dairy industry has taken HPAI in stride. Price fluctuations have been the result of buyers of the physical commodity on the CME daily spot market doing normal business.
Green returned to milk markets Friday as we finish the week on a strong note in a highly volatile market.