Milk Prices
Spot cheese trading slowed sharply this week, leading to lower prices as August Class III futures moved down amid ongoing market adjustments.
A dip in milk and dairy product prices in upcoming months could help prevent a major demand slowdown.
Midwest heat pressures milk output and boosts culling, while block cheese prices dip and test familiar support levels.
Cheese futures hovered near recent lows while spot butter slid below $2.60, pressuring Class IV prices and leaving Class III mostly steady.
Cheese futures remain strong relative to spot as Class III prices dip and active trading reflects ongoing demand.
The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” brings a range of updates for dairy farmers including extended DMC coverage, expanded tax relief, insurance incentives and pricing transparency measures.
Butter pushed to an eight-month high while Class III milk futures slipped on weaker cheese markets, lower feed costs and continued trade uncertainty despite a short-term tariff extension.
Cheese block prices fell nearly five cents, dragging Class III futures lower, while grains and feeder cattle saw solid gains ahead of the holiday weekend.
Cheese futures slipped while spot prices inched higher, narrowing the gap, as U.S. butter and powder markets held firm despite weaker global auction results.
Cheese markets rebounded sharply as spot prices finally aligned with last week’s futures rally, while USDA crop reports delivered largely neutral news for grains.
Class III milk futures rebounded sharply Friday, with August contracts jumping $0.63 to $18.33 as bargain buying, Midwest heat and active cheese trade lifted the market.
Heavy spot cheese trading continues as U.S. prices hit global bargain levels, raising questions about how much cheese remains on the market.
Spot cheese prices edged up on strong trading volume as USDA’s neutral Cold Storage report showed seasonal inventory increases but year-over-year declines.
Spot cheese prices slid sharply with blocks closing below $1.60 for the first time since March, dragging July Class III under $17 and creating a strong carry incentive for storage and hedging.
The U.S. dairy herd is at the highest level since August 2021 as farmers continue to hold onto cattle, reducing culling. The USDA made a large revision to cattle numbers on the May Milk Production report.
Spot block prices continued to decline, nearing one-year lows and dragging Class III futures with them, while widening global discounts could reopen doors for U.S. export opportunities.
Class III futures ended lower as cheese prices declined, despite a boost from dry whey. May milk production rose 1.6% year-over-year and the U.S. herd reached its largest size since 2021.
CME butter trading hit its busiest week since October, helping support Class IV gains, while soybean futures jumped on biofuel policy news.
Higher cheese and butter production has not moved supplies above year-earlier levels. Increased milk production is being absorbed domestically and internationally.
Class III milk futures edged higher today amid steady butter trade and seasonal pressures on milk output, while Class IV markets held mostly flat.
Butter saw heavy trading activity with 35 loads moved, but Class III futures continued to slide amid weak cheese prices, as markets await key USDA supply and demand data.
Cheese sellers pressured the market today, driving Class III and cheese futures sharply lower amid weak Global Dairy Trade results and steady supply.
Over the weekend, the most sweeping updates to the Federal Milk Marketing Orders in over two decades officially took effect, impacting how milk is priced across all 11 orders nationwide.
Butter prices climbed to $2.51 per lb. on the heaviest trading day since March as markets eye upcoming reports for clues on tight supplies.
Strong global demand, especially for butter, is fueling a post-holiday rally in dairy markets, pushing Class IV milk futures back above $20 and lifting cheese and powder prices across the board.
Dairy markets rallied strongly this week, led by a sharp jump in butter prices and gains in Class III and IV futures, despite declines in global milk powder prices.
The butter price has the potential to increase as fundamentals become supportive. Higher milk production will require increased demand to maintain or improve milk prices.
Dairy markets diverged ahead of the holiday weekend, with cheese prices falling sharply while butter surged to three-month highs on tighter cream supplies and strong exports.
A transformation is unfolding with geographic shifts, milk solids and revenue streams
Class III milk strengthened on rising cheese and whey prices, while April milk production climbed 1.5% year-over-year, led by growth in the Southwest.